Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
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Last Update: 8:10pm EDT -- September 7, 2024
![Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook](../images/tropics/fivedayoutlook.jpg)
The Next 7 Days
Disturbance #1: Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91): An area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This disturbance is forecast to drift slowly northward during the next several days while it interacts with a frontal boundary. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves generally northward near or along the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas through the middle of next week. Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico coast should closely monitor the progress of this system. The disturbance has a 60% chance of developing during the next two days and a 80% chance of developing during the next seven days.
Disturbance #2: Central Tropical Atlantic: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic has begun to show signs of organization. Gradual additional development is possible, and a tropical depression could form while the system meanders over the central tropical Atlantic through Monday and then moves generally westward at about 10 mph through the rest of next week. The disturbance has a 30% chance of developing during the next two days and a 50% chance of developing during the next seven days.
Disturbance #3: Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure are located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The disturbance is expected to move very little during the next few days until it potentially interacts with a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by early Monday. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle or late portions of next week. The system is expected to begin moving slowly westward by the end of the week. The disturbance has a near 0% chance of developing during the next two days and a 40% chance of developing during the next seven days.
The issuance times of this outlook are 2am, 8am, 2pm and 8pm EDT. After the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1am, 7am, 1pm and 7pm EST.
Source National Hurricane Center